Big risks are being taken this weekend with several of our stable's horses in big stake races, some of them hardly proven to be GI material. Can they do it?
Out of the 8 Rivendell horses starting this weekend, these 5 have the most to lose.
Narsil will be running in the 2.3 million dollar race The Derby. With a record of $264,600 7 starts 2-2-1 one would wonder what that horse is doing there. True he hasn't shown much in the first quarter of this season, but his last two races have me convinced he can do this. His first impressive race was the G3 Eclipse Stks winning with ease and a producing a nice PSR of 117. His latest race, the GI Prix Lupin, is the one that had me convinced for sure to go for The Derby. Again, he won with ease while setting a track record with PSR of 118. He is untried at this distance, but his AR and stamina numbers say he will like it.
Balrog is yet another horse of mine with a questionable entry, this time into the Belmont Stakes. The most absurd of my entries thus far. His record stands at $50,5000 6 starts 0-0-3. He too has not had a good start into the season, not even running a PSR over 100 in his first four races this season. His last race out was a starter allowance, which he placed 3rd in. Still not GI worthy, however his PSR was 113, a major improvement since the starts of the season and a likely contender with already proven GI horses. A Fluke? Maybe. I believe though that he is just now starting to mature and could have a shot on the board.... or he could just be the last horse. ;-)
Deadly Force is the third horse of mine entered into a million dollar race this weekend, the Magic Millions for two year olds. With two starts and two seconds in his first season and a PSR of 105 he has a shot, but still not up to par as with some of the other two year olds this season.... though it appears the ones I was afraid of like dirt better.
Kagura is running the GI Canadian Oaks with a 500K purse, just one of the big races for three year old fillies. She has the ability to win, but if she will put forth the effort to win is not certain. Kagura is not a consistent horse, and she still has yet to reproduce a PSR over 100 like she as previously this season. Also,.. to tell you the truth, I am kinda afraid of Laurie now after beating her filly in the 2nd leg of the TC. Please don't kill me.
My last big race of the week is the Golden Gate Handicap, a 350K purse, whom I have entered Melkor. He has two wins this season, though neither race brought a PSR over 100. Melkor has been much like his two stable mates, Narsil and Balrog, in having a mediocre beginning and like them also a peak where they start to show their true potential mid way through the season. He could start to peak now or even later, cause really he hasn't shown as much improvement as the other two or it could be he just won't be as good.
My trainer skills will be put to the test and despite the shaky start that most of these horses had, I do expect them all to do well by at least placing on the board. Balrog would be the one I suspect to do the worst.
*Warning* If any one of these horses win, prepare for a spaz post. If two win.... please resuscitate me.
